Football Quantitative/Betting Market Analyst

Responsibilities:

Analyse Asian Handicap, Over/Under and related football markets. Monitor opening prices, current prices, closing prices and significant market movements. Calculate and interpret implied probability, fair probability, fair odds, expected value and market edge. Identify situations where Moonlizard's model probability differs materially from the market price. Analyse team strength, expected goals (xG), shots, expected threat, possession, player availability, injuries, suspensions, lineups, tactical changes, home/away performance and other relevant variables. Distinguish genuine information-driven market movement from noise. Study sharp-market behaviour and compare prices across bookmakers/exchanges where appropriate. Conduct historical analysis and backtesting of football trading strategies. Evaluate model performance using metrics such as ROI, yield, expected value, closing-line value, hit rate, drawdown, calibration and sample size. Investigate winning and losing trades to determine whether the original decision was statistically justified. Help determine which variables should enter Moonlizard's football probability models. Produce clear pre-match research reports for matches selected by the Moonlizard engine. Maintain strict trading discipline and follow Moonlizard's risk-management rules.

Requirements:

The ideal candidate should have strong knowledge of:

Football:

Tactical football analysis Team and player statistics Expected Goals (xG) Lineups and player availability Match context and team strength

Betting Markets:

 Asian Handicap Asian Totals / Over-Under Decimal odds Implied probability Market movement Closing lines Expected value Price vs probability

Quantitative Skills:

Probability and statistics Data analysis Backtesting Model evaluation Excel/Google Sheets

Personal Qualities:

We value:

 Analytical thinking Intellectual honesty Discipline Attention to detail Ability to challenge assumptions Strong risk awareness Confidentiality Clear communication Willingness to learn Ability to work with developers and quantitative researchers