Manager, Business Intelligence (Outlook & Scenario Planning)
Job purpose
Lead long-term market, demand, supply and profitability outlooks to inform strategic planning, capital allocation and business growth strategies, and safeguard long-term value by preparing ADNOC Gas for uncertainty and multiple future worlds.
Key accountabilities
Lead long-term market, demand, supply and profitability outlooks that feed the strategic plan and capital allocation.
Develop macroeconomic and sector-level scenario models evaluating future energy trends, risks and opportunities under multiple transition pathways.
Perform integrated portfolio and P&L stress-testing to assess ADNOC Gas’s resilience and agility under different market and policy environments.
Lead initial high-level financial and economic modelling (CAPEX, NPV, IRR, sensitivities) for new growth opportunities, ensuring alignment with corporate value-creation targets.
Assess external and internal strategic drivers and translate their implications into actionable insight for the long-term strategic plan.
Interface with ADNOC Upstream and DM&T on plans, profiles and demand forecasts, and assess the impact of Gas Masterplan alignment.
Build, lead and develop the business intelligence and scenario planning team, with emphasis on UAE National development in line with Emiratisation targets.
Build a credible long-range outlook capability from a standing start, in a first-of-its-kind function, while the IGP operating model is still being stood up.
Produce outlooks that remain robust across 5 to 25 years without drifting into unusable theory – every scenario must translate into a decision signal.
Hold the boundary with the Planning & Value Chain Optimization mandate: this role uses portfolio results for stress-testing; it does not optimize assets.
Secure consistent input data and assumptions from ADNOC Upstream, DM&T, Marketing and Finance across entity boundaries.
Earn executive trust fast – outputs go directly to EXCOM and the CEO dialogue with ADNOC.
Develop one agreed set of long-term outlook assumptions used across ADNOC Gas, replacing competing versions.
Develop a living scenario model that senior leadership actually runs decisions through.
Develop early-warning signals and strategic guardrails accepted and used by the other IGP mandates.
Develop strong influence without authority across divisions and group entities.
Develop a high-calibre team and ensure retention of the team.
Minimum requirements
Bachelor’s degree with 12 or more years of experience, with at least 5 in long-range outlook, scenario planning, business intelligence or corporate and strategic planning in oil and gas, LNG, petrochemicals or energy consulting. Prior line-management experience required.
Long-term outlook & scenario modelling – proven ownership of 5 to 25 year market, demand, supply and price outlooks and multi-pathway scenario sets used for real corporate decisions.
Gas / LNG / NGL value chain depth – genuine command of gas and LNG market structure, contracting and the economics that move them.
Financial & economic modelling – CAPEX, NPV, IRR, sensitivities and P&L stress-testing at portfolio level; able to build and defend the model, not just read it.
Executive communication – track record of turning analysis into board and EXCOM-ready recommendations; excellent structured written and spoken English.
Cross-functional influence & team leadership – evidence of securing data, assumptions and alignment across divisions and separate legal entities without direct authority, plus building and developing a specialist team.